The headline figure might exaggerate the underlying strength of the Canadian labour market in April. But there is a sign of hope in the fact that payroll headcounts decrease in the private sector was the slowest since the beginning of the recession. Over this seven-month period, Ontario, Alberta and BC were hit the hardest, but the latter two registered gains in April, especially BC. Also, Quebec had rather low casualties so far. Those still working enjoy wage gains which sustain consumption. This morning’s employment report is consistent with my view calling for a stabilization of the economy in Q2, followed by positive growth in the second half of 2009.

Mounir R. El-Ayari, CIM, FCSI, C.h. P. Strategic Wealth
Investment Advisor
Associate Portfolio Manager
e-mail: mounir.el-ayari@nbf.ca